U.S. Economy Realism

Let us all keep things in perspective.

Too many people in the United States credit the Oval Office with some form of omniscient control over the direction of the U.S. and world economy. As though their hand is on the throttle of a precision racing machine and, if he keeps it fueled and maintained, we’ll all have a great ride.

The fact is, the presidency can only marginally influence the economy. Capitalism and world markets have a life of their own and can throw potholes, fallen branches, bad road maintenance, have missing guard rails and the list goes on. The warning signs might be there, but they can be obscured by branches or ignored like any distracted or narrow focused driver.

Yes, the presidency can influence the economy through policies. But, like any roller coaster relationship, the president can’t control how the vast economic engine outside of his circle of influence will react to any one thing. The world market economies have a whole lot more going on than our corner of the world. War, famine, natural disasters, bad actors, electronic trading, etc. are far beyond the scope of any one government, much less any one person or world leader, to control.

The larger world reaction to anything can undermine the principals of any policy the presidency puts out.

The presidency and their administration regardless of party are playing a high stakes guessing game. Their crystal ball is more informed, but no more prescient than anyone else.

So when someone credits any one president at any time in history with the feast or famine in the markets whether transient or long lasting, take it with a serious grain of skepticism.